From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”