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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to adopt a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "severe consequences" during the summer if Russia's president carried on obstructing peace discussions, the former president finally imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly affected Putin's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

But, with his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in danger. Although strong declarations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that essential sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business background, the former president seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not merely about controlling a charred area of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

While maintaining in status the already divided oblasts of these areas, the proposal would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its military have been unable to capture in over a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv if he subsequently opt to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would facilitate renewed fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, the initiative sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate administration as radicals, the proposal declares: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has breached comparable accords in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The plan would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, thereby precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "serious, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not